{"id":67094,"date":"2023-07-27T02:18:24","date_gmt":"2023-07-26T16:48:24","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.aumanufacturing.com.au\/?p=67094"},"modified":"2023-07-26T18:57:09","modified_gmt":"2023-07-26T09:27:09","slug":"productivity-commission-fails-as-others-forge-ahead-by-tim-buckley","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aumanufacturing.com.au\/productivity-commission-fails-as-others-forge-ahead-by-tim-buckley","title":{"rendered":"Productivity Commission fails as others forge ahead – by Tim Buckley"},"content":{"rendered":"

In recent days @AuManufacturing readers have critiqued federal governments efforts to ‘reform the Productivity Commission (see below). Here in our final part of a series, Tim Buckley argues Australia cannot afford more of the same from the PC, which continued to misread profound societal and economic change underway globally.<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n

Treasurer Jim Chalmers\u2019 announcement yesterday of a new chair of the Productivity Commission can\u2019t come a moment too soon. The Commission\u2019s FY2022 Trade Review, released last week, entirely misses the mark. <\/p>\n

In calling for Australia to ‘maintain the free trade rage’ and decrying ‘poorly designed industry assistance’, it mischaracterises efforts to deploy capital support and spending programs to rebuild Australian manufacturing and value-add our world-leading renewable resources pre-export as high-cost protectionism. <\/p>

\"\"<\/a><\/div><\/div>\n

The report barely mentions the costs of the growing climate crisis.<\/p>\n

This is a misreading of the implications for Australia of a profound global geopolitical shift already well underway \u2013 unprecedented government intervention by the US, the E.U., Canada, South Korea, Japan and a growing list of other economies to reposition themselves in the accelerating global energy transition, rebuild manufacturing onshore, and secure cleantech supply chains. <\/p>\n

These imperatives have been brought to the fore by Putin\u2019s invasion of Ukraine and China\u2019s decade-long headstart in decarbonisation technology and manufacturing.<\/p>

\"\"<\/a><\/div><\/div>\n

At this inflection point, Australia can ill-afford an approach to industry policy that will further
\nhollow out our manufacturing sector and consign us to the zero value-add, dig-and-ship
\nmentality of the fossil-fuel dominated Australian mining sector of old. <\/p>\n

We must seize the once-in-a-century opportunity to leverage our natural advantages and position ourselves as a clean industry and export superpower. And as other economies have recognised, this
\nrequires government investment.<\/p>\n

The Productivity Commission\u2019s ideology of free global trade seems, for example, to fail to recognise the significance of the massive stimulus of the >US$369bn US Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), the associated US$400bn Loan Program Office and the Infrastructure and Jobs Act \u2013 key planks of \u201cBidenomics\u201d. <\/p>\n

These all carrot, no stick subsidy programs are of unprecedented size, are turbocharging reindustrialisation, decarbonisation and cleantech in the US \u2013 from battery manufacturing to solar and wind \u2013 and expose the illusion of a capitalist marketplace thriving free of government assistance.<\/p>\n

The success of these initiatives as engines of economic growth and prosperity is evidenced in investment bank Morgan Stanley\u2019s assessment that Bidenomics is driving an unexpected US economic surge, a finding that underpins its sizable upward revision to US GDP forecasts.<\/p>\n

The bank references \u201ca boom in large-scale infrastructure’, and a domestic business investment ‘rebound, led by manufacturing.\u201d The White House confirms that Bidenomics has crowded-in over US$500bn of new private sector investment in under a year. And in its first 6 months since passage, the Inflation Reduction Act drove the creation of 100,000 new jobs, while actively embedding fair labour standards in emerging clean industries.<\/p>\n

The US IRA is of immense importance to the accelerating global investment and technology \u2018race to the top\u2019. <\/p>\n

It also brings a new era of protectionism and a revitalisation of trading bloc thinking \u2013 such as the QUAD \u2013 that the Productivity Commission seems asleep to.<\/p>\n

The European Union\u2019s Net Zero Industry Act, India\u2019s Production Linked Incentives, Japan\u2019s GX Roadmap and Canada\u2019s landmark clean energy tax credits are all direct responses to China\u2019s supply chain and manufacturing dominance and the IRA. <\/p>\n

Just this week India announced it would block the world\u2019s number one EV manufacturer, China\u2019s BYD, from building a new US$1bn EV manufacturing facility in India, despite this being in partnership with India\u2019s Megha. <\/p>\n

This week saw South Korea announce a decade of corporate tax concessions to firms onshoring manufacturing, even as they lobby for Australia to just dig-and-ship. <\/p>\n

And Germany announced a \u20ac2bn subsidy package of state subsidies to support Thyssenkrupp\u2019s bid to
\ndecarbonize its steel production, a key strategic threat to Australia\u2019s world leading 38 percent
\nglobal share of iron ore and 55 percent share of coking coal exports.<\/p>\n

The Productivity Commission fails to grasp the magnitude of the opportunity this picture presents to leverage Australia\u2019s massive competitive advantage. <\/p>\n

We have some of the world\u2019s largest reserves of critical minerals, metals and energy transition materials that underpin global decarbonisation and the wholesale transformation of the world economy.<\/p>\n

For example, Australia supplies 50 percent of the world\u2019s total lithium to drive this global pivot, but
\nin 2022 captured a fraction of 1% of the total EV value chain. And we have unparalleled renewable energy potential.<\/p>\n

We should, as a matter of urgency, be deploying our world scale, zero emissions, low cost renewable energy resources to power value-adding of our critical minerals onshore. <\/p>\n

This will position us as a key player in the multi-decade EV-battery supply chain boom, as we help our
\ntrade partners decarbonise their economies by exporting ’embodied decarbonisation’ \u2013 materials processed and manufactured using our wind and sun. <\/p>\n

Think green iron, greenaluminium and refined lithium hydroxide.<\/p>\n

We can be a renewable and cleantech export superpower as the Sunshot 2023 Report, endorsed by the Business Council of Australia, highlights, estimating that renewable export opportunities have the potential to generate over $100 billion in gross value added and support over 400,000 good Australian jobs by 2040.<\/p>\n

Australia exported $240bn of fossil fuels in 2022\/23. However, fossil fuel commodity prices have more than halved into 2023, a harbinger of things to come. <\/p>\n

This decline prefigures a major headwind to our trade profile that will only build as other countries accelerate their decarbonisation pathways and reduce their reliance on volatile and high emissions fossil gas and coal. <\/p>\n

We fail to pivot to our energy and industry transition opportunity at our own peril.<\/p>\n

Now is precisely the time to power up from a petrostate to a leading electrostate, as Alan
\nFinkel has argued; for bold reform and an ambitious domestic response to the massive
\nstrategic national interest public subsidy programs of our trade partners and competitors at
\na scale commensurate with that of Australia\u2019s unique opportunity. <\/p>\n

Public investment is critical to derisk Australian value-adding and catalyse private capital at a time of onerous and growing global policy interventionism. <\/p>\n

The Climate Capital Forum has been calling for $100bn of strategic national interest public capital to crowd-in upwards of the $200-300bn of private investment needed to reindustrialise Australia\u2019s economy, refocus our mining sector, and massively build out renewables, transmission and storage.<\/p>\n

We can play a globally significant role in the accelerating energy transformation and benefit from an investment, employment and trade boom. <\/p>\n

But leaving this to free markets means Australia will miss the boat, and abdicate its responsibility on climate. <\/p>\n

Pretending this isn\u2019t so shows the Productivity Commission is out of touch with the geopolitics of Bidenomics, and China\u2019s global dominance of critical supply chains. <\/p>\n

Their knee-jerk austerity is a recipe for irrelevance.<\/p>\n

We hope now that new leadership at the Commission signals, as Treasurer Chalmers says, a revitalisation and renewal in which ‘the productivity opportunity for Australia is \u2026 to invest in human capital and the energy transformation’.<\/p>\n

Tim Buckley is Director, Climate Energy Finance<\/em><\/p>\n

Further reading:
\nThe Productivity Commission\u2019s new target \u2013 green industries \u2018assistance\u2019<\/a>
\nTreasurer opts for tinkering with mostly ignored Productivity Commission<\/a>
\nHow can we refrom the PC when we can no longer even track productivity \u2013 by John Sheridan<\/a><\/p>\n

Picture: Tim Buckley<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

In recent days @AuManufacturing readers have critiqued federal governments efforts to ‘reform the Productivity Commission (see below). Here in our final part of a series, Tim Buckley argues Australia cannot afford more of the same from the PC, which continued to misread profound societal and economic change underway globally. Treasurer Jim Chalmers\u2019 announcement yesterday of…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":25,"featured_media":67095,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[67,63],"tags":[799,1330,651,660],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nProductivity Commission fails as others forge ahead - by Tim Buckley - Australian Manufacturing Forum<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.aumanufacturing.com.au\/productivity-commission-fails-as-others-forge-ahead-by-tim-buckley\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Productivity Commission fails as others forge ahead - by Tim Buckley - Australian Manufacturing Forum\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"In recent days @AuManufacturing readers have critiqued federal governments efforts to ‘reform the Productivity Commission (see below). 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