Nuclear has a ‘lack of economic advantage’ – CSIRO

CSIRO has found a ‘lack of economic advantage’ in investing in nuclear power over renewables, according to its GenCost 2024-25 draft report released for consultation.

The report took into consideration suggestions raised since its last report that nuclear had a longer operational life, a higher capacity factor and shorter time to delivery than previously estimated.

However these considerations made no difference to its generally negative conclusions about nuclear in the latest analysis.

CSIRO Chief Energy Economist and GenCost lead author Paul Graham said today’s draft report found no unique cost advantage in nuclear technology.

Graham said: “Similar cost savings can be achieved with shorter-lived technologies, including renewables, even when accounting for the need to build them twice.

“The lack of an economic advantage is due to the substantial nuclear re-investment costs required to achieve long operational life.”

The draft report found GenCost’s previous analysis of nuclear’s capacity factor range of 53-89 per cent fair and remains unaltered based on verifiable data and consideration of Australia’s unique electricity generation sector.

It also reported that global median nuclear construction times have increased from six years to 8.2 years over the last five years, placing a development timeframe of between 12-17 years.

Based on this analysis, GenCost maintained the total development lead time for nuclear in Australia will be at least 15 years.

GenCost is a ‘technology-agnostic and policy-neutral report’ published yearly by CSIRO and the Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO).

It focuses on cost estimates for new build electricity generation, storage, and hydrogen technologies, providing business leaders and decision makers with updated capital costs and data comparisons for their planning and financing studies.

The draft report found renewables continue to have the lowest cost range of any new-build electricity generation technology, for the seventh year in a row.

It also found inflationary pressures continue to ease but the impact on each technology’s unique raw material inputs and supply chains remains mixed.

Other insights from the GenCost 2024-25 Report:

• Large scale solar photovoltaics (PV) capital costs have fallen eight per cent two years in a row
• Battery costs recorded the largest annual reduction with capital costs falling 20 per cent
• Onshore wind generation costs increased two per cent (but at a reduced rate from an eight per cent increase last year), reflecting ongoing but moderate increases in equipment and installation costs
• And gas turbine costings increased 11 per cent, reflecting the additional cost of being hydrogen ready which is now an industry standard.

Picture: Paul Graham